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I'm actually hoping we don't get a defeat at all. I always thought we'd see the dragons retreating to the Hidden World as a result of them not being able to defeat the villains out there who don't believe that dragons and humans can coexist peacefully. If that were the ending, it'd show that even with the physical weakness removed and Hiccup having everything at his disposal (the military power of Berk's dragons and vikings, the support of his gang, etc.), he'd still have no choice but to go down the road of separation.
Okay, there's two reasons that is not going to happen:
1. It's a mainstream animated movie. The villain is going to lose. No studio would ever allow otherwise. The villain can certainly do a lot of damage on the way out (and that could easily be part of what necessitates the dragons leaving, perhaps combined with the simple knowledge that there will always be another Grimmel or Drago to be a threat.
2. Remember this line from the trailer?
"Then I will destroy every thing you love."
Now we don't know the exact context behind this line, but that's not said by a man who's going to let someone get away with taking away his prized last kill. If Hiccup ruins Grimmel's plans by sending Toothless somewhere where the villain can never get to him, then Grimmel will set himself a new goal, one which he pretty clearly stated above. And in this scenario, Hiccup just removed his tribe's best defences, and they supposedly couldn't beat the guy with said defences. Hiccup, his friends, his remaining family, and everyone with whom he has ever been on friendly terms will be murdered, brutally, probably in front of his eyes. There is no other possible outcome.
Now of course, any victory our heroes achieve can be pyrrhic, but Grimmel will lose, for in-universe and out-of-universe reasons.
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I know the second film is far more divisive than the first, but I really did love Valka.
Okay, I'm going to hold off on the epic Valka rant, because it's grossly off-topic (if I see a topic in the HTTYD 2 section on her, it will probably be the only push I need). Instead, I will simply say this:
You can write a better character than Valka. So can I. So can anyone I've seen on this forum. Sure, if you or I created a hundred characters, we would probably come up with some who are worse than her, but the vast majority would be considerably better.
I will briefly discuss two things you mentioned that you seem to think are problems, but are incredibly easy to resolve.
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How is the audience even able to forgive Astrid so quickly and ship them together immediately?
In the "Romantic Flight" sequence of the original film, Astrid is shown a side to both dragons and to Hiccup that she had never seen before. It makes perfect sense that this would cause her to reevaluate her opinions on both. As for the actual romantic side of things, when you combine an extreme situation with teenage hormones, that's more than enough to justify a crush (which, in the context of the first movie, is all it is).
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The Light Fury romance Grimmel are also things that just seem silly when put into writing.
Toothless wants sex, and the Light Fury is easily the most suitable sexual partner that he has encountered in the franchise so far. As for the Light Fury herself, she seems resistant to Toothless' advances at first, but will likely come round in a fairly sensible fashion.
Given Grimmel seems to show a particular interest in hunting Night Furies, it's likely that he enjoys the thrill and sport of it more than hunting any other dragon (which he might either still enjoy, just do for work, or some other reason).
Now maybe the reasons in the finished film will be different, but I just provided perfectly sensible explanations that don't require anyone to act out-of-character or completely unlike any human being in the history of anything.